2012年巴菲特致股东的信全文（中英文对照PDF版）

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　　！
　　To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:
　　致伯克希尔•哈撒韦公司股东：
　　The per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock increased by 4.6% in 2011. Over the last 47 years (that is, since present management took over), book value has grown from $19 to $99,860, a rate of 19.8% compounded annually.*
　　    2011年，我们公司的A股和B股的每股账面净值都增长了4.6%。过去47年期间（也就是说从现在的管理层接管公司开始至今），每股账面净值从19美元增长到了99,860美元，每年复合增长率为19.8%。*
　　Charlie Munger, Berkshire’s Vice Chairman and my partner, and I feel good about the company’s progress during 2011. Here are the highlights:
　　   我和我的合作伙伴伯克希尔公司的副董事长查理•芒格，对公司2011年的业务发展感到相当满意。其中作为突出亮点的好消息包括：
　　• The primary job of a Board of Directors is to see that the right people are running the business and to be sure that the next generation of leaders is identified and ready to take over tomorrow. I have been on 19 corporate boards, and Berkshire’s directors are at the top of the list in the time and diligence they have devoted to succession planning. What’s more, their efforts have paid off.
　　• 董事会成员最主要的工作，一是现在由正确的领导人在经营管理企业业务，二是确保已经选定下一代接班的领导人而且已经准备好明天就能接任。我本人曾经加入过19家公司的董事会，我认为，在接班人选计划上付出的时间和精力上，伯克希尔公司的董事会肯定排名前列。更可喜的是，他们的努力已经得到了回报。
　　As 2011 started, Todd Combs joined us as an investment manager, and shortly after yearend Ted Weschler came aboard. Both of these men have outstanding investment skills and a deep commitment to Berkshire. Each will be handling a few billion dollars in 2012, but they have the brains, judgment and character to manage our entire portfolio when Charlie and I are no longer running Berkshire.
　　   2011年初，托德•康布斯（Todd Combs）作为投资经理人加入我们公司，2012年初泰德随时韦斯切勒（Ted Weschler）也加入公司。他们两位都具有杰出的投资技巧， 而且愿意全心全意为伯克希尔公司服务。2012年他们俩人将会管理几十亿美元的投资，但是，当我和芒格不同管理伯克希尔公司的时候，他们俩人具备的头脑、判断和性格完全能够管理伯克希尔公司的整个投资组合。
　　Your Board is equally enthusiastic about my successor as CEO, an individual to whom they have had a great deal of exposure and whose managerial and human qualities they admire. (We have two superb back-up candidates as well.) When a transfer of responsibility is required, it will be seamless, and Berkshire’s prospects will remain bright. More than 98% of my net worth is in Berkshire stock, all of which will go to various philanthropies. Being so heavily concentrated in one stock defies conventional wisdom. But I’m fine with this arrangement, knowing both the quality and diversity of the businesses we own and the caliber of the people who manage them. With these assets, my successor will enjoy a running start. Do not, however, infer from this discussion that Charlie and I are going anywhere; we continue to be in excellent health, and we love what we do.
　　   公司董事会对作为我的接班人担任公司未来CEO职位的经理人也同样充满信心，他们对他已经非常了解，对于此人的管理能力和个人品德也非常敬仰。（我们同时还有两位超一流的后备人选）。未来需要移交管理职责的时候，一切将会是平滑过渡无缝连接，伯克希尔公司的发展前景仍将是一片光明。我的个人财富98%以上都在伯克希尔公司的股票上，所有这些持股将会捐赠给几家不同的慈善组织。如此高度集中投资于一只股票完全违背传统的投资智慧。但是，由于我本人非常了解伯克希尔公司拥有的各家企业的品质有多么优秀，多元化程度有多么分散，以及管理这些企业的经理人的才干有多么出色，所以我对这种安排非常满意。能够拥有如此优质的资产，我的接班人将会拥有一个很好的起点。可是，千万不要根据我的这些说法，就推断我和芒格很快将会离开公司管理岗位，我们仍然非常健康，而且我们非常热爱我们的工作。
　　• On September 16th we acquired Lubrizol, a worldwide producer of additives and other specialty chemicals. The company has had an outstanding record since James Hambrick became CEO in 2004, with pre-tax profits increasing from $147 million to $1,085 million. Lubrizol will have many opportunities for “bolt-on” acquisitions in the specialty chemical field. Indeed, we’ve already agreed to three, costing $493 million. James is a disciplined buyer and a superb operator. Charlie and I are eager to expand his managerial domain.
　　• 2011年9月16日，我们收购了Lubrizol公司，这是一家全球性的添加剂及其它特殊化学品生产企业。从2004年James Hambrick担任CEO以来，这家公司创出了杰出的业绩记录，税前利润从1.47亿增长到10.85亿美元。Lubrizol公司在特殊化学品领域将会拥有很多并购企业的机会。实际上，我们已经谈成了三起收购，投入资金4.93亿美元。James Hambrick既是一个纪律性非常强的收购者，又是一个超一流的经营者。我和芒格急切盼望能够扩大他的管理范围。
　　• Our major businesses did well last year. In fact, each of our five largest non-insurance companies – BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon Group and MidAmerican Energy – delivered record operating earnings. In aggregate these businesses earned more than $9 billion pre-tax in 2011. Contrast that to seven years ago, when we owned only one of the five, MidAmerican, whose pre-tax earnings were $393 million. Unless the economy weakens in 2012, each of our fabulous five should again set a record, with aggregate earnings comfortably topping $10 billion.
　　• 我们下属的主要企业2011年表现都很出色。事实上，我们旗下最大的5家非保险企业——BNSF, Iscar, Lubrizol, Marmon集团和中美能源的营业利润都创出了历史最高记录。2011年这些企业的税前利润累计超过90亿美元。和七年前相比，我们只持有这5个公司中的一个即中美能源，它的税前收益为3.93亿美元。而在七年前，我们只拥有其中一家，就是中美能源，当时其税前盈利为3.93亿美元。除非经济在2012年走弱，我们这五项业务应该都能再创纪录，总盈利能够轻易超过100亿美元。
　　• In total, our entire string of operating companies spent $8.2 billion for property, plant and equipment in 2011, smashing our previous record by more than $2 billion. About 95% of these outlays were made in the U.S., a fact that may surprise those who believe our country lacks investment opportunities. We welcome projects abroad, but expect the overwhelming majority of Berkshire’s future capital commitments to be in America. In 2012, these expenditures will again set a record.
　　• 总体而言，我们下属的业务经营企业2011年度用于机器设备房屋这些固定资产的支出高达82亿美元，比我们过去的历史最高记录还要高出20亿美元。这些投资支出约95%花在美国国内，这一事实或许会让那些认为美国国内缺乏投资机会的人非常震惊。我们也非常乐意在海外进行投资，但是我们期望伯克希尔公司未来资本性支出中绝大多数用于美国国内。2012年，这些资本性支出肯定会再创新高。
　　• Our insurance operations continued their delivery of costless capital that funds a myriad of other opportunities. This business produces “float” – money that doesn’t belong to us, but that we get to invest for Berkshire’s benefit. And if we pay out less in losses and expenses than we receive in premiums, we additionally earn an underwriting profit, meaning the float costs us less than nothing.
　　• 我们的保险业务继续保持他们持续为公司其它无数投资机会提供无成本资金的优良传统。保险业务创造了“浮存金”，这是客户缴纳的保费，我们尚未进行赔付，还并不属于我们，但在我们账上，能够用来进行投资为伯克希尔公司创造收益。如果我们未来赔付和费用支出低于我们收取的保费，那么我们还能额外赚到承保利润，这意味着我们的保险浮存金的成本低于零。
　　Though we are sure to have underwriting losses from time to time, we’ve now had nine consecutive years of underwriting profits, totaling about $17 billion. Over the same nine years our float increased from $41 billion to its current record of $70 billion. Insurance has been good to us.
　　   尽管我们未来肯定会一再发现承保亏损，但是到现在我们已经连续9年取得承保盈利，累计盈利170亿美元。这9年期间，我们的浮存金从410亿美元增长到现在创记录的700亿美元。
　　• Finally, we made two major investments in marketable securities: (1) a $5 billion 6% preferred stock of Bank of America that came with warrants allowing us to buy 700 million common shares at $7.14 per share any time before September 2, 2021; and (2) 63.9 million shares of IBM that cost us $10.9 billion.
　　• 最后，我们在流通证券市场上做了两笔巨额投资：（1）投资50亿美元购买美国银行年利率6%的优先股，附带可以在2021年9月2日前以每股7.14美元购买7亿股普通股的认股权证；（2）投资109亿美元买入IBM公司6390万股股票。
　　Counting IBM, we now have large ownership interests in four exceptional companies: 13.0% of American Express, 8.8% of Coca-Cola, 5.5% of IBM and 7.6% of Wells Fargo. (We also, of course, have many smaller, but important, positions.)
　　   加上IBM，我们现在在四家非常优秀的公司里占有大量股份：美国运通13%，可口可乐8.8%，IBM 5.5%，富国银行7.6%。（当然，我们也拥有很多小一点，但同样重要的仓位。）
　　We view these holdings as partnership interests in wonderful businesses, not as marketable securities to be bought or sold based on their near-term prospects. Our share of their earnings, however, are far from fully reflected in our earnings; only the dividends we receive from these businesses show up in our financial reports. Over time, though, the undistributed earnings of these companies that are attributable to our ownership are of huge importance to us. That’s because they will be used in a variety of ways to increase future earnings and dividends of the investee. They may also be devoted to stock repurchases, which will increase our share of the company’s future earnings.
　　   我们把这些持股都看作是拥有杰出企业的一部分股东权益，而不是看作根据企业近期发展前景变化而买入或卖出的两只流通股。可是我们按照持股比例应当享有的这两家企业的盈利，绝大部分无法反映在我们自己的盈利中，只有我们实际收取到的现金股利才能体现在我们的财务报表上。可是按照我们的持股比例应当享有的未分配利润，未来长期而言，对于我们具有极大的重要性。这是因为这些未分配利润将会通过很多种方式使用，进一步提高这两家企业未来的盈利和股利。这些未分配利润也可能用于股票回购，这也将会提高我们分享企业盈利的股权比例。
　　Had we owned our present positions throughout last year, our dividends from the “Big Four” would have been $862 million. That’s all that would have been reported in Berkshire’s income statement. Our share of this quartet’s earnings, however, would have been far greater: $3.3 billion. Charlie and I believe that the $2.4 billion that goes unreported on our books creates at least that amount of value for Berkshire as it fuels earnings gains in future years. We expect the combined earnings of the four – and their dividends as well – to increase in 2012 and, for that matter, almost every year for a long time to come. A decade from now, our current holdings of the four companies might well account for earnings of $7 billion, of which $2 billion in dividends would come to us.
　　如果我们在去年就持有我们现在的仓位，我们从这“四大”公司中就可以获得8.62亿美元的分红。这一部分就会出现在伯克希尔的收入报告中。我们这个季度的盈利就会高得多，为33亿美元。查理和我相信我们账本上没有报告的24亿美元将为伯克希尔创造同等的价值，因为它可以增加未来数年的盈利。我们预期这四家公司的盈利和分红2012年会继续增长，并在未来许多年都会增长。十年后，我们持有的这四家公司盈利可能为我们带来会70亿美元盈利，其中有20亿美元的分红。
　　I’ve run out of good news. Here are some developments that hurt us during 2011:
　　   我已经说完了好消息。现在需要讲一下2011年那些给我们带来损害的坏消息了：
　　• A few years back, I spent about $2 billion buying several bond issues of Energy Future Holdings, an electric utility operation serving portions of Texas. That was a mistake – a big mistake. In large measure, the company’s prospects were tied to the price of natural gas, which tanked shortly after our purchase and remains depressed. Though we have annually received interest payments of about $102 million since our purchase, the company’s ability to pay will soon be exhausted unless gas prices rise substantially. We wrote down our investment by $1 billion in 2010 and by an additional $390 million last year.
　　• 过去几年，我花了20亿美元购买了Energy Future Holdings发行的多种债券，后者是一家为德克萨斯州的部分地区提供服务的电力运营商。这是一个错误-巨大的错误。从大的方面衡量，这家公司的前景与天然气价格的前景联系在一起，而后者在我们购买后大幅下跌并一直在低估徘徊。尽管自购买后我们每年收到大约1.02亿美元的利息支付，但除非天然气价格大幅上升，否则这家公司的支付能力将很快耗尽。我们在2010年对这笔投资提了10亿美元减记。去年又补提了3.9亿美元。
　　At yearend, we carried the bonds at their market value of $878 million. If gas prices remain at present levels, we will likely face a further loss, perhaps in an amount that will virtually wipe out our current carrying value. Conversely, a substantial increase in gas prices might allow us to recoup some, or even all, of our write-down. However things turn out, I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman.
　　• 在年底，我们将这笔债券的账面价值按其市值8.78亿美元确认。如果天然气价格维持在目前水平，我们很可能将面临更多损失，金额甚至最终能够抹去目前的账面价值。相反，如果天然气价格大幅回升，我们将会恢复部分，甚至全部的减记额。无论结果如何，在我购买债券的时候都算错了收益损失概率。在网球术语中，这是你们的主席一次非常重大的非受迫性失误。
　　• Three large and very attractive fixed-income investments were called away from us by their issuers in 2011. Swiss Re, Goldman Sachs and General Electric paid us an aggregate of $12.8 billion to redeem securities that were producing about $1.2 billion of pre-tax earnings for Berkshire. That’s a lot of income to replace, though our Lubrizol purchase did offset most of it.
　　• 在2011年，三项大规模的同时也是非常有吸引力的固定收益投资被其发行人赎回了。瑞士再保险，高盛和GE在赎回证券时一共向我们支付了128亿美元，这些证券此前每年给伯克希尔创造12亿美元的税前收益。这么一大笔收益需要再投资，尽管我们对Lubrizol的收购抵消了大部分的影响。
　　• Last year, I told you that “a housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so.” I was dead wrong. We have five businesses whose results are significantly influenced by housing activity. The connection is direct at Clayton Homes, which is the largest producer of homes in the country, accounting for about 7% of those constructed during 2011.
　　• 我在2010年信中说：“未来1年左右可能出现一次房价反弹。”我实在是大错特错。我们旗下有5家企业的经营业绩受房地产建设活动很大。其中影响最直接的是Clayton房屋公司，这是美国最大的移动房屋生产商，2011年约占美国移动房屋产量的7%。
　　Additionally, Acme Brick, Shaw (carpet), Johns Manville (insulation) and MiTek (building products, primarily connector plates used in roofing) are all materially affected by construction activity. In aggregate, our five housing-related companies had pre-tax profits of $513 million in 2011. That’s similar to 2010 but down from $1.8 billion in 2006.
　　   另外受房地产建设活动影响相当大的还有：生产砖块的Acme公司,生产地毯的 Shaw公司, 生产绝缘材料的Johns Manville公司， 主要生产房顶联结板等建筑产品的MiTek 公司。总体而言，我们旗下与房地产建设密切相关的5家企业在2011年的税前利润只有5.13亿美元，这与2010年差不多，但是和2006年税前利润18亿美元相比降幅超过70%。
　　Housing will come back – you can be sure of that. Over time, the number of housing units necessarily matches the number of households (after allowing for a normal level of vacancies). For a period of years prior to 2008, however, America added more housing units than households. Inevitably, we ended up with far too many units and the bubble popped with a violence that shook the entire economy. That created still another problem for housing: Early in a recession, household formations slow, and in 2009 the decrease was dramatic.
　　   房地产会复苏的-你能够对此确信无疑。长期看，房屋的数量需与家庭的数量相当（在考虑通常比例的空置率后）。然而，在2008年前的一段时期内，美国增加的房屋数量高于家庭数量。不可避免的，最终我们造了太多的房屋，泡沫破裂的威力动摇了整个经济。这还给房地产业带来了另一个问题：在衰退初期，新家庭形成的速度放缓，在2009年这一下滑非常剧烈。
　　That devastating supply/demand equation is now reversed: Every day we are creating more households than housing units. People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while “doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure.
　　   原来供给远远超过实际需求，给房地产市场带来毁灭性打击，现在供给与需求的关系却开始倒转：每一天我们创造出的新的家庭数量都超过住房数量。在不确定的年代，人们也许会推迟结婚，但最终荷尔蒙会战胜一切。有些人在经济衰退期间最初做出的对策是合住，但是和自己或配偶的父母合住很快就会失去原来的吸引力。
　　At our current annual pace of 600,000 housing starts – considerably less than the number of new households being formed – buyers and renters are sopping up what’s left of the old oversupply. (This process will run its course at different rates around the country; the supply-demand situation varies widely by locale.) While this healing takes place, however, our housing-related companies sputter, employing only 43,315 people compared to 58,769 in 2006. This hugely important sector of the economy, which includes not only construction but everything that feeds off of it, remains in a depression of its own. I believe this is the major reason a recovery in employment has so severely lagged the steady and substantial comeback we have seen in almost all other sectors of our economy.
　　   以我们现在每年新增60万套住房的速度，大幅低于新成立的家庭数量，这些新家庭购买方和租房者正在逐步消化过去过度供给建设的房屋。（这个逐步消化的过程在美国各地进展速度各有不同，各地供求关系也有很大不同。）当这种市场创伤开始痊愈的现象出现时，我们旗下与房地产建设市场相关的企业却仍然业务萎缩，2011年只雇佣了43315名员工，而2006年雇佣了58769名员工。房地产行业是对于国民经济至关重要的行业，并不仅仅包括建筑行业，还包括所有靠房地产行业吃饭的行业，本身继续处于衰退之中。为什么我们已经看到美国经济其它行业几乎全部出现持续稳定的显著复苏，而就业人数的复苏却严重滞后，我相信房地产行业的衰退是最重要的原因。
　　Wise monetary and fiscal policies play an important role in tempering recessions, but these tools don’t create households nor eliminate excess housing units. Fortunately, demographics and our market system will restore the needed balance – probably before long. When that day comes, we will again build one million or more residential units annually. I believe pundits will be surprised at how far unemployment drops once that happens. They will then reawake to what has been true since 1776: America’s best days lie ahead.
　　   明智的货币政策和财政政策，在暂时性复苏中扮演了重要的角色，但是这些工具既不能创造出新的家庭，也不能消除过剩的房屋。幸运的是，人口统计数据和我们的市场经济体制将会恢复必须的平衡，可能就在不久的将来。当那一天到来的时候，我们将会继续每年建造一百万套甚至更多的住房。我相信，一旦房地产建设恢复到正常水平，那些专家学者们将会非常吃惊地发现失业率大幅下降。他们那时就会重新清醒地认识到自己1776年以来始终不变的事实真相：美国最好的日子还在后头。
　　Intrinsic Business Value企业内在价值
　　Charlie and I measure our performance by the rate of gain in Berkshire’s per-share intrinsic business value. If our gain over time outstrips the performance of the S&P 500, we have earned our paychecks. If it doesn’t, we are overpaid at any price.
　　   我和芒格衡量我们公司业绩的标准是，伯克希尔每股内在企业价值的增长率。如果我们能够让公司内在价值增长超过标普500股票指数的增长，那么我们才能对得起我们拿的薪酬。如果我们没有做到，那么不管我们拿的薪酬金额是多少，肯定都是过高了。
　　We have no way to pinpoint intrinsic value. But we do have a useful, though considerably understated, proxy for it: per-share book value. This yardstick is meaningless at most companies. At Berkshire, however, book value very roughly tracks business values. That’s because the amount by which Berkshire’s intrinsic value exceeds book value does not swing wildly from year to year, though it increases in most years. Over time, the divergence will likely become ever more substantial in absolute terms, remaining reasonably steady, however, on a percentage basis as both the numerator and denominator of the business-value/book-value equation increase.
　　   我们没有办法可以精确计算内在价值。但是我们确实有一个相当有用尽管有相当程度的低估的内在价值代用指标：每股净资产。对于大多数公司而言这个指标毫无实际意义。可是对于伯克希尔公司，账面净资产的变化能够非常大致地追踪企业价值的变化。这是因为伯克希尔公司内在价值超越账面价值的幅度相对稳定，并没有出现每年狂烈波动的现象，尽管大多数年份超越的幅度都在增加。未来长期而言，内在价值与账面价值的偏离，用绝对数值来看，可能会变得更加巨大，但是用内在价值作为分子，用账面价值作在分母，二者相除得出的相对百分比数字，将会保持相当稳定。
　　We’ve regularly emphasized that our book-value performance is almost certain to outpace the S&P 500 in a bad year for the stock market and just as certainly will fall short in a strong up-year. The test is how we do over time. Last year’s annual report included a table laying out results for the 42 five-year periods since we took over at Berkshire in 1965 (i.e., 1965-69, 1966-70, etc.). All showed our book value beating the S&P, and our string held for 2007-11. It will almost certainly snap, though, if the S&P 500 should put together a five-year winning streak (which it may well be on its way to doing as I write this).
　　  我们经常一再强调说，几乎可以肯定，在股市表现糟糕的年份，我们公司的账面价值增长会超越标普500指数的增长，但同样几乎可以肯定，在股市表现强劲的年份，我们公司的账面价值增长会落后于指数。真正的考验是我们长期表现如何。2010年的年报中我列出了一张表，计算了我们从1965年以来的每个5年期的业绩表现（如1965-1969，1966-1970，以此类推。）每个5年期间我们的账面价值增长都战胜了标普500指数增长，而且我们的连胜记录也持续保持到了2007年到2011年这最近5年。如果标普500指数未来在一个5年期大幅上涨战胜我们的话（在我写下这段话时股市可能正在这样做呢。）
　　* * * * * * * * * * * *
　　I also included two tables last year that set forth the key quantitative ingredients that will help you estimate our per-share intrinsic value. I won’t repeat the full discussion here; you can find it reproduced on pages 99-100. To update the tables shown there, our per-share investments in 2011 increased 4% to $98,366, and our pre-tax earnings from businesses other than insurance and investments increased 18% to $6,990 per share.
　　   2010年我还列出了两张表格，罗列了那些将会帮助你估算伯克希尔公司每股内在价值的关键数量因素。在这里我就不再重复叙述了，你可以在年报第99页到第100页上看到那些内容。表格中更新的数据是，2011年我们的投资增长了4%达到了每股98366美元，来自于非保险业务的每股税前利润增长了18%达到了每股 6990美元。
　　Charlie and I like to see gains in both areas, but our primary focus is on building operating earnings. Over time, the businesses we currently own should increase their aggregate earnings, and we hope also to purchase some large operations that will give us a further boost. We now have eight subsidiaries that would each be included in the Fortune 500 were they stand-alone companies. That leaves only 492 to go. My task is clear, and I’m on the prowl.
　　   我和芒格希望能够投资和经营两个方面都能实现增长，但是我们最关注的重点是提高经营性盈利。长期而言，我们现在拥有的企业将会进一步提高他们的总体盈利，我们也希望能够收购一些大型企业，从而进一步推动我们公司的业绩增长。我们旗下8家企业如果做为独立企业，都能进入财富杂志世界500强企业。外面只有492家世界500企业了。我的任务非常清楚，我正在潜伏着搜寻猎物。
　　（限于帖子篇幅限制，本帖只是第一部分，阅读其他各部分请点击下面链接）
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（全文中英文对照）.pdf
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（2）
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（3）
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（4）
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（5）
　　2012年巴菲特致股东的信（6）——伯克希尔公司年会